An honest account of the data, the model, and — importantly — what it does and doesn't beat.
Every FBS roster (136 programs, groups=80) and every skill-position player's per-game log is pulled from ESPN's public college-football feed. Season totals, per-game rates and national ranks are derived from a single canonical source, so the same number appears identically on the player page, the leaderboards and the cheat sheets.
For each player and market we weight recent games most heavily and blend the result toward a positional baseline. College football has enormous roster churn and a long off-season between slates, so one strong prior year is a weak signal — the model leans on the position average until fresh in-season games accumulate. That blend becomes a per-game projection and an estimated chance of clearing each line.
From the first bowl game a postseason layer switches on, read from each game's own ESPN season type; regular-season numbers are untouched. Two parts passed a leave-future-out test on the 2008-2025 postseasons: in a bowl between two FBS teams that is not a Playoff game, the projected margin is multiplied by 0.863 (our bowl margins ran too wide), and a quarterback's projected pass attempts rise 5.1% (quarterbacks throw more in bowls). Bowl totals, Playoff games and every other player market stay as the regular model has them: bowl scoring does not drop, and those adjustments did not improve accuracy on later seasons. The biggest postseason change is opt-outs (19% of 2021-2025 bowls were missing a leading player) and no free pre-game source tracks them, so check availability before you use a bowl projection.
Betting markets are efficient. Our projections are published as context and research, not guaranteed winners. PrizePicks posts a single number with no price on either side, so there is no market line to "beat" in the usual sense — we never claim a market-beating edge, and we never publish profit, ROI or units unless a track record is genuinely, verifiably profitable. The accuracy page shows only how well our percentages match real outcomes.
Once the season opens, every projection is graded against realized game logs on the correct league-local date. A missed game (DNP) is a void, never a loss; a result exactly on the line is a push. Only wins and losses feed the calibration curve.
For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+. Please bet responsibly.