How to read our numbers

New to this? Start here. This page explains what our numbers mean, what they don't claim, and the words the rest of the site uses -- in plain language, with no advice on what to bet.

The three numbers on every page

The projection

Our projection is the model's best single-number estimate of a stat -- say, how many rushing yards we expect a player to gain. It's an average expectation, not a promise the result will land exactly there. A real game can come in well above or below it.

The line

The line is the number a sportsbook or a pick app posts for you to bet over or under -- for example "Rushing Yards 54.5". It is the market's number, not ours. Books set it to attract betting on both sides.

The gap between them

When our projection sits above the line, our model expects more than the market's number; below, less. That gap is simply where the model and the market disagree. It is not a guarantee, and a bigger gap is not automatically a better bet -- it can also mean the line is set on information the model doesn't have, like a late injury.

What our numbers do not claim

We do not claim to beat the market. Our projections are a research tool, not tips. On markets we haven't graded, we show how far off a verdict is rather than pretend we have one; where we can't stand behind a confidence label, we hide it instead of guessing. A number here is a starting point for your own decision -- never a recommendation to place a bet. If you choose to bet, only you are responsible for it. 21+; please play responsibly.

The words we use

Line: The number posted for a bet -- you wager on the outcome landing over or under it, or on a side.
Over / Under: A bet on whether the result finishes above (over) or below (under) the posted line.
Spread: A margin the favorite must win by, or the underdog can lose within, for a bet on them to win. "-6.5" means the favorite must win by 7 or more.
Prop: A bet on something specific inside a game -- a player's yards, receptions or touchdowns -- rather than the final score.
Juice / Vig: The book's built-in fee, baked into the odds. It's why a near coin-flip pays a little less than even money.
Implied probability: The chance an outcome needs for its odds to be a fair price, once the vig is removed. Odds of -150 imply roughly a 60% chance.
Closing line: The final line just before kickoff. It's treated as the sharpest number, so getting a better number earlier than the close is a common sign of a good bet.
Edge: The difference between the model's estimated probability and the market's implied probability. A positive edge means the model rates the bet likelier than the price does -- an estimate, not a promise.
Hit rate: How often a line has cashed in the recent past -- e.g. "cleared this number in 7 of the last 10 games". It's history, not a prediction.
Unit: A standard bet size, so records can be compared without dollar amounts. "Up 3 units" means three times your usual stake.
Projection: Our model's single-number estimate for a stat this game -- the average we'd expect, not a called shot.
Tier / lean: Shorthand for how the projection sits versus the line. We only attach a confidence tier to a market once its record has earned one; until then the number stands on its own.

For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 21+. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER.